基于ARIMA模型的我国人口、耕地与粮食预测分析

Prediction Analysis of Population,Cultivated Land and Grain in China Based on the ARIMA Model

本文利用我国人口、耕地与粮食单产数据,运用ARIMA模型,对我国人口、耕地与粮食单产发展进行定量预测分析,为制定未来粮食安全政策提供参考。研究结果:按现阶段中国人口、耕地与粮食单产发展形势至2020年用于种粮的耕地面积10.74亿亩,粮食单产5518.60公斤/公顷。人均粮食占有量441.56公斤。用于种粮的耕地面积比《全国粮食安全发展纲要》11亿亩的指标少0.26亿亩,人均粮食占有量较2020年人均粮食消费量395公斤的粮食安全指标高46.56公斤。建议通过坚持计划生育政策、制定严格的土地审批制度,实现人口、耕地、粮食的协调发展。

This paper is to present Chinese population, Cultivated land and grain yield per unit area development situation by quantitative analysis for the development of future food security policy to provide reference, Methods employed include ARIMA model, The results show that according to the Chinese population. Cultivated land and grain yield per unit area development situation to 2020 grain sown area of 110941000 hectares. The grain yield of 5518.6 kg / ha, per capita grain 441.56 kilograms, than the ＂food security index of the national food security development program＂ in 2020 per capita grain consumption of 395 kilograms of high 46.56 kilograms. The conclusion of the paper is the current development situation of food security situation is quite good but there is a certain gap and to building a well-off society grand goal in 2020 requirements.