基于灰色系统模型的城乡建设用地规模预测——以济南市为例

Prediction of the Urban and rural construction based on grey system model in Ji'nan

建设用地规模预测是土地利用总体规划编制的核心,也是土地利用管理的依据。为了切实搞好济南市的土地利用总体规划,使之更具有前瞻性、可操作性,必须切合实际地搞好建设用地需求规模和布局的预测。采用灰色系统模型,通过灰色关联度分析,建设用地发展与GDP、总人口、市镇人口、社会固定资产投资、第二产业产值、第三产业产值密切相关。基于这些因子,采用灰色系统模型法、建立GM(1,1)灰色模型,进行了2015年和2020年城乡建设用地规模的预测。

Land demand forecast prepared by the overall planning of land use, and is also the basis for land-use Management. To do a good job in Jinan City＇s general land use planning, make it more farsighted, operational, good to be realistic scale of land demand forecast. By gray correlation analysis, constructive land demand is closely related with GDP, the total population, the town population, investment in fixed assets, output value of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry. Based on these factors, we conducted the forecast scale of constructive land in 2015 and 2020 by GM（1,1） model.