摘要
在项目完工成本概率预测问题的研究中,传统挣值分析法中对项目完工成本的预测没有考虑到项目成本的不确定性,预测结果均为单一值。为解决上述问题,根据挣值分析法原理和项目各活动成本分布的特征,结合项目实施过程中的活动成本与进度绩效信息,给出活动完工成本的三点估计,即最乐观值、最可能值和最悲观值,并提出基于蒙特卡洛仿真的项目完工成本概率预测方法。上述方法综合考虑了项目成本的不确性,给出了预测结果的区间范围和概率分布。案例分析表明改进方法的预测结果符合项目成本的随机性特征,且预测精确度较高。
In traditional earned value analysis method, forecasting for project cost at completion does not consider the project cost uncertainty and the predictive results are too simple. According to the theory of earned analysis meth- od and the cost distribution characteristics of activities in project, three point estimates of activity cost at completion, namely the most optimistic value, the most likely value and the most pessimistic value, were given based on activity cost and schedule performance during project execution. Based on these, a forecasting method for project cost proba- bility at completion based on Monte Carlo simulation was put forward. The method comprehensively considers project cost uncertainty and gives the interval area and probability distribution of predictive value. The case analysis shows that the prediction results of this method conform to the random characteristics of project cost and the prediction accuracy is higher.
出处
《计算机仿真》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第9期301-304,309,共5页
Computer Simulation
基金
江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2013SJB6300075)
教育部人文社科规划基金项目(10YJA630082)
关键词
项目完工成本概率预测
蒙特卡洛仿真
挣值分析法
活动成本绩效
活动进度绩效
Forecasting for project cost probability at completion
Monte Carlo simulation
Earned value analysis method
Activity cost performance
Activity schedule performance
