基于智能体的多类新能源汽车市场扩散模型

An Agent-Based Diffusion Modeling and Simulation of Multiple Classes of New Energy Vehicles

随着全球环境问题的不断加剧,新能源汽车将成为汽车发展的重要方向。基于智能体建模方法,构建了多类新能源汽车市场扩散系统的仿真模型,并通过情景分析方法揭示了传统汽车主导、两类新能源汽车共存的情况下,新能源汽车产品的扩散过程。研究结果表明:技术学习率的高低、政府的补贴力度对于新能源汽车的推广起着重要的影响作用,在产品的市场占有率达到一定水平前不应撤销补贴;另外,社会网络因素对纯电动汽车的扩散具有促进作用。

New Energy vehicles have been an important developing area since the global environment problem has become more and more serious. We build a multi-agent simulation model, and based on this model, the diffusion process of two classes of new energy vehicles and the traditional vehicles are analyzed under different scenarios. The results show that technical learning rate and government subsidy policy are critical factors for successful diffusion of new energy vehicles; the subsidy policy may not be stopped until the new energy vehicles achieve certain penetration level. In addition, the social network factor has positive impact on the diffusion of pure electric vehicles.