从“梯度发展”到“同步转型”--中西部实体经济发展的“柳州拐点”

From Gradient Development to Simultaneous Transformation:Liu Zhou Turn Point of Real Economy in Middle and West of China

2011年以来,中西部经济发展出现显著回落拐点,传统的中西部梯度发展模式遇到瓶颈。本文从综合成本、城乡差距、生态约束、产能过剩、地方债务等五个方面分析认为,此轮中西部经济增长的回落并不只是宏观经济周期现象,其预示着中西部传统梯度发展道路的终结,中西部开发战略应进入与东部"同步转型"的发展新阶段。随着基础设施的完善,中西部地区有能力与条件在产业升级、开放经济、发展方式、制度改革方面与东部保持同步,形成发展新动力。广西柳州在中西部城市实体经济发展方面具有典型性,"柳州拐点"代表着中西部城市转型的普遍现象,其转型难题与转型经验具有共性意义。

Since 2011, the real economy in middle and west of China presents a significant downturn point. It implies that the traditional gradient development model applied in Middle and West hits a bottleneck. Based on the comprehensive cost, urban-rural gap, ecological constraints, excess production capacity and local government debt, the downturn of Middle and West＇economic growth is not just the phenomenon of macro economic cycle. It implies the end of traditional gradient development model and the Middle and West of China should enter into simultaneous transformation era with the east coastal area. With the upgrade of infrastructure, the Middle and West areas are able to find new driving forces and keep up with the East in the aspect of industry upgrading, economy openning, development model and institution reforming. LiuZhou city in development and its turn point delegate the transformation. Some common transformation GuangXi province is a successful case in real economy universal phenomena during Middle and West cities＇ difficulties or experiences could be summed up from LiuZhou turn point.