北京市空气污染物对呼吸系统疾病门诊人数的影响

Relationship between air pollutant and respiratory diseases hospital outpatient visits in Beijing

为评价北京市大气污染对居民呼吸系统疾病门诊人数的影响,采用时间序列半参广义相加模型（GAM）,在控制了长期趋势、“星期几效应”及气象因素的影响后,分析2009～2011年北京市空气污染物与呼吸系统疾病门诊人数的暴露-反应关系,并按性别和年龄层建立模型.结果表明,3种污染物有一定的滞后效应,PM10在滞后0～3d（avg03）或0～5d（avg05）的移动平均值,SO2和NO2均在滞后0～2d（avg02）的移动平均值使呼吸系统疾病门诊人数的增加百分比（PI%）值达到最大,其中 PM10、SO2和 NO2浓度每增加10μg/m^3,对应的呼吸系统疾病全人群的 PI%分别为1.72%、1.34%和2.57%.年龄≥65岁的老年人群对北京市空气污染物最为敏感,其次为年龄≤14岁的人群；空气污染对女性的影响较男性明显.

To quantitatively evaluate the effect of air pollution on hospital outpatient visits for respiratory diseases in Beijing. A semiparametric generalized additive model （GAM） was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between air pollution and daily respiratory diseases outpatient visits from 2009 to 2011 in Beijing after controlling long time trend, the “day of the week” effect and confounding meteorological factors. At the same time, the model was established based on the sex and age groups. The results showed that there was certain lag effect of three kinds of air pollutants on daily respiratory diseases outpatient visits. The lag time of PM10 was 4-day moving average （avg03） or 6-day moving average （avg05）. The lag time of SO2 and NO2 was 3-day moving average （avg02）. An increase of 10μg/m^3 in PM10, SO2, NO2 were significantly associated with the percentage increase （PI%） of 1.72%, 1.34% and 2.57% for all hospital outpatient visits, respectively. The elder more than 65 was the most sensitive to air pollution in Beijing, followed by those less than 14-year-old. The influence of air pollution on the female was more obvious than the male.