我国环境污染、对外贸易和工业发展的关系探究

Research on the Relationship Between the China's Environmental Pollution,the Foreign Trade and the Industrial Development

使用Eviews6.0软件分析1983年至2011年的统计数据,研究环境污染、对外贸易和工业发展之间的关系.首先,使用熵值法构造环境污染综合评价指数.然后,使用Grange检验确定三个变量之间的因果关系,使用VAR模型求解三者之间的量化关系,研究了脉冲响应分析和方差分解.结果表明:对外贸易会影响工业发展,对外贸易的变动冲击在前期会促进工业发展,随着年数的增加,其作用逐渐减少;对外贸易对环境的冲击表现为先增加然后平稳的减少;工业发展对环境污染的冲击最大出现在第二期,最后,采用分位数回归研究变量关系在不同分位点的变化规律,结果表明:对外贸易在各个分位点上都是高度显著的促进工业发展;对外贸易仅在高分位点上是显著的带来环境污染.

In this paper, we research the relationship between the pollution of the environmerit, foreign trade and the industrial development by using the Eviews6.0 to analyze the statistical data from 1983 to 2011. Firstly, we construct an index to measure the pollution of the environment by entropy evaluation method. Secondly, we use the Grange test and the VAR model to determine the relation between three variables. The results is that the foreign trade will promote the industrial development, and it also causes environmental pollution. Finally, we use the quantile regression to study the relationship between the variables. The result is that the foreign trade are highly significant to the industrial development in all quantiles, but the foreign trade is significant to the environmental pollution only in high quantiles.