中国货运量与GDP及运输结构动态关系研究

The Dynamic Relationship between China's Freight Volume with GDP and Transport Structure

中国货运量与GDP及运输结构的关系对于中国物流的可持续发展极为重要.选取1955-2011年中国货运量、GDP及公路货运量所占货运量比重的时间序列数据,运用VAR,模型研究中国货运量与GDP及运输结构的动态关系.结果表明:从长期来看,货运量、GDP及运输结构三者存在长期均衡关系;Granger因果关系表明:货运量和运输结构是影响GDP的原因;脉冲函数表明:运输结构对货运量的影响是负向的,而GDP对货运量的影响是正向的.

The relationship between freight volume with GDP and transport structure in China has drawn wide-spread attention since it is highly significant for China＇s sustainable development in logistics domain. Having selected data in terms of freight volume, GDP, and time series data indicating the proportion of highway cargo in totM freight volume during 1955 to 2011, this paper attempts to explore the dynamic relationship between them using VAR model. The final results show that there exists a long-run balanced relationship between these three elements. Besides, the Granger cause-and-effect relationship reveals that the freight volume and transport structure are the causes and GDP the effect. Furthermore, seen from the pulse function, the impact of transport structure on freight is negative, while GDP is positively related to freight volume.