基于模糊综合分析法的货物航运风险评价研究

Study on the Risk Evaluation of Cargo Shipping Safety Based on Fuzzy Analytic Network Process

大宗货物在航运中发生货差货损很难避免，存在一定的风险．分析发现货物安全除与传统航运风险分析的人一机一环境．管理四个方面的因素有关，还与货物自身特性特征有关．在咨询专家和总结大量航运货损数据的基础上建立了货物航运风险指标体系，应用模糊综合分析方法对货物航运风险进行评价．最后以长江重庆段某时刻货船运输的改性沥青为例，验证了评价方法的有效性．

Damages or losses of bulk cargo were often occurred during the process of water transportation. Analysis of risk of cargo shipping safety found that besides people-ship- environment and management four aspects, the risk of water transport of bulk cargo is also relevant to their own characteristics. Risk index system of cargo shipping is established on the basis of consulting experts and summarizing the mass data of cargo damages in this paper. Then, the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method is applied to evaluate the risk of cargo shipping safety. The transported modified asphalt on Yangtze River in Chongqing area at a certain time is taken as an example, and the effectiveness of the method is validated.