西藏林芝地区城镇居民消费支出的G(1,1)模型预测及其影响因素的关联度分析

The GM(1,1) Prediction Model on Urban Residents Consumption Expenditure of Linzhi in Tibet and Grey Relative Analysis on Its Affecting Factors

利用2006—2012年林芝地区城镇居民人均生活消费支出数据为研究对象,应用灰色系统理论建立了林芝地区城镇居民消费的G(1,1)预测模型,对其未来几年的人均生活消费进行预测,分析得出:在未来五年中林芝地区城镇居民人均生活消费支出呈现攀升的态势,平均年增长率预计达到7.93%.并运用灰色关联分析方法对影响林芝地区城镇居民消费支出的主要因素进行系统分析,确定了各因素相对于消费支出的关联程度.

Based on the data of 2006-2012 urban residents per capita consumption expen- diture of Linzhi in Tibet, this paper established the GM （1,1） prediction model on the urban residents consumption of Linzhi applying the Grey System Theory. Per capita consumption expenditure in future of Linzhi was predicted. The results showed that the urban residents cGnsumption expenditure of Linzhi showed rising trend and the average annual growth rate of urban residents consumption expenditure of Linzhi will ascend to 7.93 percent in the next 5 years. Besides, we analyzed the main indicators of the factors affecting urban residents per capita consumption expenditure of Linzhi and determined the correlation degree between per capita consumption expenditure and its major affecting indicators using the method of grey relational analysis.