中国制造业转移的机制、次序与空间模式

Migration of Manufacturing Industries in China:Whether,How and Where

本文借助产业转移理论模型,提出了"核心区产业能否转移""按什么次序转移""以什么空间模式转移"三个假说。在此基础上,利用中国地级行政单元的三位数制造业数据对上述假说进行了检验。结果表明,中国制造业已经出现由东部向中西部地区的大规模转移;在转移次序上,按照产业替代弹性的逆序展开。高替代弹性产业先转移,低替代弹性产业后转移;在空间模式上,低替代弹性产业呈现等级扩散模式,高替代弹性产业呈现扩展扩散模式。

Based on new economic geography and central place theory, three hypotheses regarding whether, how and where industries in the core area shift are put forth. Then we use three-digit manufacturing in prefecture-level to test these hypotheses and find that industries in the east migrated to the central and western regions of China during 2003-2009. The sequence and spatial pattern of migration is closely related to the industrial elasticity of substitution. Industries with high elasticity of substitution migrate firstly and show an expansion diffusion pattern, whereas industries with low elasticity of substitution migrate subsequently and display a hierarchical diffusion pattern.