气候冲击与晚清教案

Climate Shocks and Anti-Christian Cases in Late Qing Dynasty

众多研究发现气候冲击引发的经济冲击是造成暴力冲突的重要原因,本文通过构建面板泊松模型考察了气候冲击对清末教案的影响。回归结果显示气候冲击对粮食收成与价格有显著作用,而后者又影响了教案的发生,据此可推断经济冲击是重要的传导途径。本文还分别考察了教案发生原因的两类假说,发现机会成本假说的解释力度优于俱乐部公共品假说。此外,本文还利用不同的回归模型与替代变量验证了结果的稳健性。

Numbers of studies find that climate shocks are the main reasons for violent conflicts. This paper analyzes the influence of weather shock on anti-Christian cases （ACC） in late Qing dynasty using panel Poisson model. The results show that weather shock has significant association with agricultural production and food price as well as lagged influence on ACC. I also investigate two hypotheses behind these conflicts and find that opportunity cost hypothesis is superior to club goods hypothesis. Moreover, abovementioned results are proved to he robust through using alternative estimates and variables.