政府财政支出结构调整对经济增长和就业的动态效应研究

A Study on the Dynamic Effect of Government Fiscal Expenditure Structure Adjustment on Economic Growth and Employment

本文通过构建包含四种财政支出形式的动态随机一般均衡模型,并采用贝叶斯估计(Bayes Estimation)方法,分别探讨政府财政支出结构变动对我国经济增长和就业的影响。研究发现,增加政府投资性支出和服务性支出均能够有效地刺激产出和就业,并使得两者长期位于稳态值之上,服务性支出的作用效果尤为明显;而政府转移支付不能够起到刺激产出和增加就业的作用,其对另外三种财政支出的挤出效应使得转移支付对经济的负面效应更强;增加政府消费性支出不仅阻碍了经济增长而且也在一定程度上抑制了就业。

Based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework, we construct a DSGE model containing fiscal expenditures, and use Bayesian Estimation method to analysis four types of government expenditure impacting on economic growth and employment. It turns out that, increasing government investment expenditure and service expenditure are able to stimulate economic growth and employment effectively, and make them rise above the steady state value for a long time, especially the service expenditure. Howe-ver, the government transfer payment has negative effect on economic growth and employment, which ma-ke them fall below the steady state value for a long time. The government expenditure also has weak and negative effect on economic growth and employment.