基于情景模拟的居民住宅内部财产的水灾脆弱性评价

Vulnerability Assessment of Property in Residences in Waterlogging Disaster Based on Scenario Simulation

鉴于脆弱性研究已成为灾害学研究的主题并逐渐融入社会可持续发展策略,结合上海市实际,针对不同收入水平的居民住宅,在建立各阶层标准居家模型的基础上,利用合成法构造城市水灾中内部财产的脆弱性曲线,并以上海市龙华镇为例,基于DEM、遥感图像及模拟的水灾情景,利用GIS技术进行空间展布,得到龙华镇三种潮水水位时居民住宅内部财产的脆弱性分布图。结果表明,该方法可为市政部门提供必要的信息,提高水灾的管理水平。

Disaster vulnerability study becomes the theme of research on disaster science and is gradually fused into social sustainable development strategy. On the basis of previous work at home and abroad, the vulnerability curves of property in residences were constructed in allusion to different income groups by the synthesis method. Based on assump tions for three flood scenarios, the spatial distribution was carried out by ARCGIS. Vulnerability distribution maps of Longhua town in Shanghai City were plotted. The results show that the method of vulnerability assessment is applicable, which can provide not only necessary information but guidance for Shanghai Municipal Government to improve flood management.