物流发展、FDI与出口贸易结构优化——基于中部地区的实证分析

Level of Logistics Development, FDI and Export Trade Structure Optimization——Based on the Experience of SVAR Model

基于中部六省1994-2012年的统计数据,通过对物流发展水平指标提取主成分,发现中部地区物流发展综合水平在不断提升,特别是入世后得到迅猛的发展;采用资本、技术密集型产品占工业制成品出口额的比重测算的结果显示,中部地区出口贸易结构正由劳动密集型向资本、技术密集型演化。借助SVAR模型实证表明:中部地区FDI与物流发展水平及出口贸易结构之间呈现了良性互动效应,但物流发展水平只是与FDI显现了互动,而未能有效促进出口贸易结构优化,在吸引FDI促进出口贸易结构优化方面,物流依然是中部区位优势中的一块短板。基于实证结果的启示,文章最后提出中部地区应考虑将提高区域物流信息化水平、实现区域物流一体化及标准化等作为政策的着力点,改善物流业软环境,才能更好地吸引FDI有效推动经济转型、产业升级及出口贸易结构优化。

Based on statistical data of six central provinces from 1994 to 2012, this paper finds that the overall level of logistics is improving by extracting principal component, especially after WTO it has been the rapid development. The proportion of capital and technology-intensive products accounting for exports manufactured goods shows that central region exports structure is evolving from labor-intensive to capital and technology-intensive. Empirical evidence by SVAR model shows that FDI, level of logistics development and structure of export trade showed positive interaction effect in the central region, but the level of logistics development and FDI show only interactive, not effectively promote export trade structure optimization, logistics is still a short board of central location advantage. Based on these conclusions, this paper suggests that the central region should consider to improve the information level of regional logistics, achieve integration and standardization of regional logistics to attract FDI effectively promoting economic restructuring, industrial upgrading and export trade structure optimization.