欠发达地区流通产业的关联特征与宏观经济效应分析——以甘肃省为例

Research on Industrial Linkage and Macroeconomic Effects of Commercial Circulation Industry in Western Underdeveloped Area—— A Case of Gansu Province

文章利用2002年和2007年的投入产出资料,基于投入产出模型,以甘肃为例对欠发达地区商贸流通业的产业关联特征和宏观经济效应进行了定量测算。研究结果表明:甘肃商贸流通业对第二产业的后向需求拉动作用最明显,与农业的后向关联最弱;甘肃商贸流通业对其自身和其他服务业的前向支撑作用最大,对农业的支撑作用最小;甘肃流通产业由中间产品型产业正逐步转变为最终需求型基础产业,产业增加值率有所提高;甘肃商贸流通业对当地经济增长的拉动作用较为明显,感应度系数和影响力系数仅次于第二产业。宏观经济效应则反映出:甘肃商贸流通业为劳动密集型产业,其在吸纳就业、促进消费方面仍有待加强;流通业开放度低,内向型特征显著。最后提出了发展欠发达地区商贸流通业的相关政策建议。

This paper uses input-output data of 2002 and 2007, by nput-output model, we analyze the industrial linkage features and macroeconomic effects of commercial circulation industry in China＇s western underdeveloped area taking Gansu province as example. The backward industrial indicator indicates that commercial circulation industry has strong connection with the second industry, and the backward effect on agriculture is weak. The forward indicator indicates that commercial circulation industry has strong forward effect on itself and other services, and the effect on agriculture is weak. Intermediate demand and inputs rates indicate commercial circulation industry is gradually recovering from producer services to customer services and promoting the underdeveloped area＇s economic growth significantly, but its ability in absorbing employment and promoting consumption remains to be strengthened. The paper puts forward some proposals on development of Commerce and industry in western underdeveloped regions.