紫茎泽兰潜在分布对气候变化响应的研究

Research on responses of Eupatorium adenophorum's potential distribution to climate change

紫茎泽兰的生态适应性强,是我国外来入侵物种中危害最为严重的恶性杂草。研究紫茎泽兰的适生性特征及对全球气候变化的响应规律是制定防控策略的重要基础,为此,本研究采用了将生态位因子分析（ENFA）与最大熵模型（MaxEnt）嵌套的方法,首先通过ENFA对环境因子进行降维,利用降维后的环境因子以及当前及A1b情景的未来气候数据,根据最大熵模型（MaxEnt）预测紫茎泽兰的潜在分布,并使用ROC曲线分析对预测结果进行评价。结果显示,当前气候情景下,紫茎泽兰的分布区以云南、贵州、广西等省为主;未来A1b情景下,易入侵等级（入侵概率为0.6-1.0）的区域面积将会由当前的12.82km^2增加至2080s的21.30km^2,中心点将由当前位置向西南方向移动61km;而其中高入侵概率等级（入侵概率为0.8-1.0）的区域面积将由当前的0.42km^2增加至2080s的0.91km^2,中心点将由当前位置向东南方向移动178.66km。根据当前及未来A1b气候情景下紫茎泽兰潜在分布情况,并根据不同入侵等级区域采取相应的防除治理措施,将对紫茎泽兰的综合治理具有重要指导意义。

Eupatorium adenophorumis one of the most invasive alien species in China.It has a strong ecological adaptability,and it can seize the niche very quickly thus the native species would be posed a threat to biodiversity by being crowded out.In order to study the potential distribution of E.adenophorumand its response to climate change,also to find out the environmental factors which influence the distribution of E.adenophorum,the ecological niche factor analysis（ENFA）and the maximum entropy model were combined in this study.Firstly the environmental factors dimension was reduced by ENFA;secondly together with current and future climate data the study use MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of E.adenophorumin the future.The results showed that in the A1 bscenario,the main distribution areas were Yunnan,Guizhou,and Guangxi province.From now to 2080 s,the area of L45grade（the invasion probability is 0.6-1.0）was increased from 12.82km^2 of nowadays to 21.30km^2 in 2080 s,and the center moved 46.62 km northwest.While the area of L5grade（the invasion probability is 0.8-1.0）was increased from 0.42km^2 of nowadays to 0.91km^2 in 2080 s,and the center moved 178.66 km northeast.According to the research of the potential distribution of E.adenophorum in the current and future,the area of different invasion grade could be controlled by appropriate measures,and it will provide an important guidance for the comprehensive management.