河北省蔬菜综合灾害风险评估——基于非参数信息扩散模型

Evaluation on vegetables comprehensive disaster risk in Hebei province——Based on non-parametric information diffusion model

为了评估河北省不同蔬菜面临的自然风险,用综合灾害风险表示多种自然风险对蔬菜产量的综合影响,以芹菜、大白菜、黄瓜、茄子、西红柿等5种蔬菜为研究对象,通过2002—2012年间5种蔬菜的实际单产,拟合出产量的趋势方程,找到拟合值,进而计算蔬菜的损失率;用适宜于小样本下进行灾害损失估计的信息扩散模型得出河北省不同蔬菜生产发生不同损失率的概率。结果表明,河北省5种蔬菜因各种自然灾害风险发生产量损失的生产风险由大到小排序为:茄子>芹菜>西红柿>黄瓜>大白菜。河北省蔬菜面临的综合灾害风险较大,需采取措施对蔬菜综合灾害风险进行有效控制。

In order to evaluate the natural risks of different vegetables, the comprehensive disaster risk is used to represent the combined effects of multiple natural hazards on vegetable production, taking celery, cabbage, cucumber, eggplant, tomatoes as object, using the actual yield of five vegetables from 2002 to 2012, then fit trend equation, find out the fitted values, and calculate the losses. Using non-parametric information diffusion model, we can get different loss rates of vegetables. The result shows that the descending order of five vegetables production risk is eggplant〉 celery〉 tomatoes〉 cucumber〉 cabbage. The conclusion is that vegetables comprehensive disaster risk in Hebei province is large, and we have to take effective measures to control it.