广东水稻生产风险评估研究

Evaluating Production Risk in Rice Production of Guangdong Province

广东省作为全国第一人口大省和粮食调入区,有着庞大的水稻需求量,但广东省的水稻生产量却远远落后于水稻需求量,对处于"典型气候脆弱区"的广东省而言,生产风险评估对水稻生产、水稻保险、粮食安全等工作的开展具有重要意义。通过利用直线滑动平均和非参数信息扩散模型对广东省各市早晚稻生产风险进行评估,评估结果表明:1晚稻风险大于早稻风险;2珠三角非沿海地区、粤东粤北粤西内陆地区和沿海地区水稻生产风险依次升高;3广东省水稻单产减产10%以上的概率较小。

Abstract： Guangdong is one of the pmvlnces with the most of population in China, but the rice production is very small compared with its needs. At the same time, natural calamities happen so frequently that Guangdong suffers extremely economy loss, especially the agricultural economy. Based on this, the production risk evaluation had significance for rice production, insurances and food safety. In the study, the linear sliding average method and non-parametrlc model of information diffusion were used to evaluate the risk of the rice production. The evaluation results that , （i） the production risk of late rice was much bigger than that of early rice ; （ii） the rice production risk increased fi＇om Noncoastal area of pearl rivar deltas to inland of East, North and West of Guan^dong and coastal areas; （ill） the probability of yield reduction over 10 % was very small.