摘要
中国人均GHG排放量在达到世界平均水平前,增排将是合法的。但是,如果中国在快速经济增长时,通过CDM项目合作,使增排量减少,这将既有利于发达国家降低成本减排,又有利于中国的可持续发展,对全球环境和经济都有好处。本文以中国“经济结构变化”、“技术进步”、“能源结构改善”以及“环境标准和法规的强化”作为要素,构造中国的CDM方案,并利用CGE模型测算这些要素改进时可能产生的CO2减排资源。本文还比较了不同方案的减排效率,分析了参数变化对减排量影响的性态特征。
The increase of China' s per capita GHG emission is reasonab le provided the emission is less than the world average.However,the emissio n reduction is possible through CDM i mplementation during China' s rapid economic growth.It is not only beneficial to Annex I country' s cost -effective emission reductio n but also beneficial for China' s sustainable development.In this p aper,economic structure,technolo gical innovation,energy efficiency,and environ-mental -protection regulation are r egarded as four major driving factors.Based on them individually or synt hetically,different Scenarios are made up.A CG E model is employed to calculate emis sion reduction of scenarios with above -mentioned factors improving.The paper also makes a comparison of effectiveness of emission reduction betwe en dif-ferent scenarios,and an analysis of characteristics of the impact of parameter change on emission reduction.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2002年第7期109-114,共6页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(99BJY034)
