中国经济运行“新常态”解析

The Analysis of New Normalcy of China Economic Operation

近3年,中国经济整体运行有以下特征:经济增速是中高速的,且有小幅波动,就业基本平衡,低水平通胀,出现局部性金融风险,管理部门出台了有限度的经济刺激政策。但目前,中国经济运行主要有以下风险:持续通缩,房地产投资增速回落,市场违约风险显性化,联保联贷的风险。要维持经济新的运行状态,货币政策应保持宽松的基调不变,但要使资金进入实体经济,财政政策可更积极一些,尤其是要关注小微企业。

Nearly three years, China overall economic operation has the following characteristics, an intermediate speed of economic growth with slight fluctuations, employment balance, low inflation, appearance of localized financial risk, and management department issued limited economic stimulus policies. But now, the Chinese economy is facing the following risks： persistent deflation, growth rate of real estate investment fall back, the dominance of default risk in market, and the risk of the coinsurance syndication. In order to maintain economic operation in the new state, monetary policy should remain accommodative tone, hut fiscal policy can he more active to make money into the real economy, especially paying attention to the small-micro enterprises.