对上海经济增长阶段转换及发展的认识与思考

Understanding and Thinking the Phase Transformation and Development of Shanghai's Economic Growth

从周期规律看,自1978年以来上海经济运行表现为4个发展阶段,从第2个周期开始平均经济增速出现下移,目前下移趋势更为明显。从经济发展阶段看,上海已处于发达经济体行列。从经济结构看,上海产业演化进入以服务经济为主的发展阶段。上海发展中的主要矛盾,体现在传统实体经济优势趋向弱化,物量规模的扩张面临极限,全社会劳动生产效率增长放缓,创新驱动发展仍在徘徊中。对外贸易、金融创新、收入分配格局、财税体制、城乡一体化以及宏观经济统计改革等领域,是上海深化改革的重要方面。

From the periodic pattern, Shanghai economy presented as four-cycle. From the beginning of the second cycle, the average economic growth rate appears down, and the current downward trend is more pronounced. From the stage of economic development, the Shanghai has been in the ranks of the developed economies. From the economic structure, Shanghai industrial evolution into the service economy development stage. The major contradictions in Shanghai development embodied in the traditional advantages of the real economy tend to weaken, capacity expansion under limit, slowdown in labor productivity of the whole society and innovation-driven development which is still hovering. Areas of foreign trade, financial innovation, income-distribution structure, taxation system, urbanrural integration, and macroeconomic statistics reform are the important aspects of deepening reform in Shanghai.