新疆能源消费、碳排放与经济增长——基于近似和脱钩关系的实证

Xinjiang Energy Consumption,Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth——Based on the Empirical Relationship between Approximation and Decoupling

在测算2000-2011年新疆碳排放总量的基础上,从近似关系和脱钩关系两个角度刻画能源消费、碳排放量经济增长之间的关系。从近似关系来看,能源消费与碳排放的总量变动趋势近似,能源与碳排放强度的变动趋势近似;在脱钩关系方面,碳排放与经济增长、能源消费与经济增长的脱钩弹性指数类型在同年份表现完全一致,且在多数年份指向弱脱钩状态,未来一定时期弱脱钩发展趋势可能仍将持续。最后,提出优化能源结构、调整产业结构以及开发节能技术等对策。

Based on the estimated total carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 2000 to 201 1 due to the energy consumption,the paper respectively studies the approximate relations and decoupling relations between energy consumption and carbon emis-sions economic growth.The results show that：the total amount of carbon emissions in Xinjiang and carbon emissions of coal,oil,natural gas have an overall upward trend;since the year 2000 carbon emissions have been growing rapidly.From the approximate relations,changes in total energy consumption have the similar trends with the approximate total carbon e-missions;movements in energy intensity and carbon intensity have the approximate trend.In the decoupling relations,dur-ing 2000 to 2011,the decoupled elasticity index of carbon emissions and economic growth,energy consumption and eco-nomic growth type have the accordant performance in the same year;Most of time,the indexes are in the weak decoupled state,which may continue within a period of time.In view of this,the paper proposes suggestions such as optimizing the energy structure,adjusting industrial structure,developing energy-saving technologies.