长沙市近10年土地利用变化过程与未来趋势分析

Land-use change process in recent ten years and trend analysis in Changsha in future

为真实地刻画和揭示长沙市土地利用变化的过程与趋势,利用HJ-CCD及ETM遥感影像获得长沙市2000—2010年的土地利用变化信息.利用变化幅度和动态度、土地利用转移矩阵和变化趋势指数,定量分析过去10年土地利用空间变化,预测各土地利用类型的变化趋势.结果表明:人工表面空间位置转移不频繁,未来变化趋势为强劲的涨势,扩张可能来自耕地、湿地以及未利用土地的系统性转入;耕地和林地的空间位置转移频繁;耕地的变化趋势为落势,未来流失方向是人工表面;林地变化趋势为落势,流失方向是人工表面和草地,转化为人工表面的可能性更大;草地以净增加为主,来自未利用土地转入的可能性更大;未利用土地以净流失为主特征,流失方向是人工表面.

For truly describing the process and trend of land-use change, HJ-CCD and ETM imagery was used to obtain land-use change information in Changsha in the recent ten years（2000-2010）. Then we used models including land-use dynamic model, degree change model, and transition matrix to quantitatively analyze the land-use change process information in Changsha in the ten years. Furthermore, P- trend index was used to forecast the trend for each type of land-use changes in future. The results are the following. The spatial transfer of theartificial surface is not frequent, and the area will be rapidly expanded due to transfer from farmland. The spatial transfers of farmland and woodland are frequent. Most of farmlands will become artificial surfaces in future. Forestland will transfer most likely to artificial surfaces and also to grass. Grass will expand due to transfer from badland. Badland will continuously become artificial surfaces.