欠发达民族山区生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化及预测分析——以四川凉山彝族自治州为例

Dynamic analysis and forecast of ecological footprints and ecological capacity in Liangshan Yi autonomous prefecture in Sichuan province

利用生态足迹模型计算凉山州2004—2011年的生态足迹和生态承载力,运用发展预测模型对凉山州的生态足迹和生态承载力进行预测.结果表明,2004—2011年凉山州人均生态足迹由2004年的0.506 66 hm2,增加到2011年的0.593 46 hm2;人均生态承载力从2004年的0.873 43 hm2,降低到2011年的0.717 70 hm2;生态盈余值不断降低.2015年,凉山州将由生态盈余变为生态赤字,且生态赤字会不断增大.探讨了凉山州实现可持续发展的努力方向.

Ecological footprints （EF） and ecological capacity （EC） in Liangshan prefecture from 2004 to 2011 were studied by using the ecological footprints model. Ecological footprints and ecological capacity in Liangshan prefecture in future were predicted by using the growth prediction model. Results showed that in Liangshan prefecture the per capital EF increased from 0. 506 66 hm2 of 2004 to 0. 593 46 hm2 of 2011 ; the per capital EC increased from 0. 873 43 hm2of 2004 to 0. 717 70 hm2 of 2011; and the ecological surplus constantly decreased. The ecological surplus will turn into ecological deficit in 2015, and the ecological deficit will constantly grow. The efforts for realization of sustainable development in Liangshan prefecture are discussed.