电厂安全云理论评价

Safety evaluation of power plant based on cloud theory

为解决电厂安全评价问题.根据不确定性云理论,运用系统工程的综合评价方法对电厂安全性进行度量和预测.按照科学性、代表性等原则构建评价指标体系,利用专家评判方法确定权重,采用逆态云发生器建立了评价算法模型.与传统的层次分析法、模糊综合评判法、主成分分析法等评价方法相比,解决了电厂安全评价指标的同时具有模糊性和随机性的度量.通过具体实例进行了实际评价,评价结果表明:与实际相一致,说明该方法可信、适用,对电厂安全生产评价提供了一种新的理论和算法.

It is necessary to evaluate the safety of power plant in order to ensure its safe production. This paper measured and predicted the safety of power plant according totheuncertainty cloud theory, using the comprehensive evaluation method by applying system engineering. The evaluation index system was built according to scientific and representative principles while the expert judgment method was used to determine the weight, and the inverse normal cloud generator was taken to establish evaluation algorithm. Compared with other evaluation methods of level analysis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and principal component analysis, this method presents the safety evaluation index of power plant at the same time with a measure of fuzziness and randomness. Some specific examples are used to verify that this method is reliable, applicable, and provided a new theory and algorithm for the safety evaluation of power plant.