逐步判别分析的急倾斜煤层顶煤可放性分类

Stepwise discriminant analysis model for classifying top-coal cavability of the steep seam

运用煤矿生产实践中积累的相关数据,分析影响顶煤可放性的多个因素,基于逐步判别分析理论,建立逐步判别分析模型.通过逐步判别分析法优选瓦斯、开采深度、倾角、煤层厚度四项作为主要判别指标,利用工程实测数据作为学习样本进行训练,建立相应判别函数对待判样本进行预测,得出预测结果与实际情况相吻合.研究结果表明:经过训练后的判别函数模型回判的误判率为0,判别模型函数效果显著.逐步判别分析模型对急倾斜煤层顶煤可放性分类的判别性能较好,预测结果准确,且操作过程简单,便于实际推广.

This paper utilized the large amount of data accumulated from the production practice, analyzed the factors of top coal caving of road way sub-level caving mining in steep seam, and established the Stepwise discriminant model based on the principle of stepwise discriminant analysis. Stepwise discriminant analysis model can be used to choose factors effectively which play a leading role in top coal cavability, and the main controlling factor of top coal caving such as gas, mining depth, pitch and coal seam thickness has been selected as the input variables, and thus a distance discriminant analysis model is established. The discriminant functions of Stepwise discriminant analysis model are obtained by training a large set of study samples and then applied to engineering, the distinguishing results are consistent with the actual case. The study shows that the model of Stepwise discriminant analysis has a great classification capability and a high prediction accuracy that could be used in practical engineering.