10kV城市配电网可靠性基础参数预测方法分析

Prediction Method for Reliability Underlying Parameters of 10kV City Distribution Network

介绍了灰色模型预测法和非线性回归模型预测法的预测模型,分析了这两种预测方法的特点,在此基础上提出应根据历史数据的特点合理选择各种配电网可靠性基础参数的预测手段。以某地区配电网设备的故障率和预安排停电率为算例,阐述了各种预测方法的具体运用。算例预测结果表明:在样本容量小的情况下,当历史数据较平滑时灰色模型预测法有较大的优势;在存在不准确历史数据的情况下,采用非线性回归模型预测法更加准确。

This paper introduces grey model prediction method and prediction model of nonlinear regression model prediction method and analyzes characteristics of these two prediction methods. Meanwhile,it also proposes to reasonably select pre-diction means for reliability basic parameters of various distribution networks according to characteristics of historical data. Taking fault rate and pre-arrangement power-cut rate of distribution network equipments in some region as examples,defi-nite utilization of various prediction methods was stated. Example prediction results indicated that in small sample size situa-tion and when historical data was comparatively smooth,grey model prediction method was in greater advantage while in in-accurate historical data situation,nonlinear regression model prediction method was more accurate.