我国价格贸易条件及其波动性对经济增长影响的实证研究

Empirical Study on Effect of China's TOT and Its Volatility on Economic Growth

本文考察了1980~2010年间我国价格贸易条件均值水平及波动性变化对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明：不仅价格贸易条件均值水平对我国的经济增长具有明显推动作用，而且价格贸易条件波动性也与经济增长之间存在着显著的正相关关系。研究结论和基于跨国数据所得出的“价格贸易条件波动性与经济增长之间负相关”的经验结论截然不同。这意味着我国在管理和干预价格贸易条件变化过程中，不要忽视适度的价格贸易条件波动性对经济增长的正向影响和积极作用。

This article examined the effect of China’s TOT and its volatility on economic growth during 1 980-2010 pe-riod.The results show that not only mean value but also volatility of TOT play positive role in promoting China’s economic growth.There exists an obvious positive relation between TOT volatility and economic growth.This result is in sharp contrast to the previous one that “TOT volatility has a negative relation with economic growth”based on cross country data and analy-sis,which reminds us that during the management and intervening of TOT,we should not ignore the positive effect of TOT volatility on China’s economic growth.