河北省城市碳排放责任分摊模型及实证研究

Study on the urban carbon emissions burden sharing model in Hebei Province

采用投入导向的DEA模型将非期望产出即碳排放量作为投入量,将人口、能源耗费和GDP作为产出变量,利用灰色预测模型对各产出变量进行预测,经过后验差检验,模型精度合格,对河北省11个地级市2015年的碳排放责任进行了效率评价和经济评价,并根据评价结果对各地级市给出了改进意见,证明了在减排过程中实现经济发展的可能性。

The article uses input-oriented DEA model to take no expectation output that is carbon emissions as the inputs, and take the population, energy consumption and GDP as output variables, using the grey forecasting model to forecast the output variables. After the posterior difference test, it proved that model precision is qualified. Carbon emissions responsibility of 11 cities in Hebei province in 2015 is made efficiency evaluation and eco-nomic evaluation. According to the evaluation results, improve-ment opinions were put out to various cities. It proved the possibili-ty for economic development in the process of carbon reduction.