甘肃省农业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩研究

Decoupling Analysis between Agricultural Carbon Emissions and Economic Development in Gansu Province

在测算甘肃省1993—2011年农业碳排放量的基础上,构建该省农业碳排放与经济增长的Tapio脱钩指标模型,研究了甘肃省1994—2011年农业碳排放与经济增长之间的相互关系。结果显示,农业投入导致显著的碳排放增长;脱钩弹性曲线大体上呈现周期性"较理想状态—畸形状态—较理想状态"的"W"型变化,其中一、三阶段整体发展良好,强弱脱钩状态占比达82.5%;各阶段有不同的脱钩指标值,出现各类状态的原因各不相同。依据结论,提出了相关低碳减排建议。

This paper estimated the agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province from 1993 to 2011. On this basis, this paper built the Gansu agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth in the state of Tapio decoupling analysis model to study the 1994 - 2011 agricultural carbon emissions and the relationship between economic growth in Gansu Province. The results showed that：The input to agriculture led to significant growth in carbon emission. Decoupling elastic curve was largely periodic＂ideal state - deformed state - ideal state＂of the＂W＂type change. One and three stages of the overall development was good, strong and weak decoupling state was accounted for 82.5 %, the decoupling stages had different index value types of state occurs for different reasons. Finally, some relevant measure suggestions were proposed to reduce the agricultural carbon emissions.