菊花花枯病在中国潜在适生区的DYMEX预测

Prediction of potential geographical distributions of Mycosphaerella chrysanthemi in China by DYMEX modle

菊花花枯病菌(Mycosphaerella chrysanthemi)是菊花上的重要病害,被列入我国2007年颁布的检疫性有害生物名录,其在欧洲和北美广泛发生,但在中国尚无发生报道。本文根据菊花花枯病的生物学特性和已知的其在世界的实际分布,利用DYMEX和ArcGIS软件对其在中国的潜在适生区进行预测;结果表明菊花花枯病在我国的亚热带季风气候区内广泛适生,秦岭以北的温带大陆性气候区,为菊花花枯病的非适生区。江苏省、四川省南部,浙江、福建沿海、广东东部沿海,云南、贵州、台湾大部,湖南、湖北交接区域等,为菊花花枯病在我国的高度适生区。

Mycosphaerella chrysanthemi, as the pathogen of ray blight, which is one of the most serious fungal disease of Chrysanthemum, was a quarantine pest of China, it is prevalent in Europe and North America and cause significant yield losses, but in China have not been reported. In this study, DYMEX and ArcGIS were used to predict the potential geographical distribution of M.chrysanthemi in China. The parameters used in DYMEX were derived from ecological data and the present geographical distribution of M.chrysanthemi in the world. Then the potential distribution map in China was presented based on the adjusted values of these parameters. The result indicated that M.chrysanthemi was suitable in most parts of southern China, Areas such as the southern Jiangsu and Sichuan, the eastern coast of Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, most parts of Yunnan, Guizhou, Taiwan were the optimal regions for M.chrysanthemi, the north regions of Qinling Mountains were unsuitable for M.chrysanthemi.