“单独二孩政策”实施初期的出生堆积及其特点

The Coming Baby Boom after Loosening Birth Control Policy and Its Characteristic in China

"单独二孩政策"实施初期出生堆积的程度取决于"生育潜能存量"的大小和其释放比例及释放进度。文章根据计生部门的统计资料和已有的对全国"单独育龄妇女"的预测结果进行推算,如果2014年年初全国统一实行单独二孩政策,全国的生育潜能存量将达到约2000万人,其中的60%左右会在政策调整后逐步释放,并主要集中在政策调整的最初几年释放,由此带来的出生堆积不可避免。生育政策调整对不同地区和不同妇女群体的影响有差别,因此,相关管理部门在政策调整初期要通过多种手段降低出生堆积的程度,尤其要避免生育率的"政策性反弹"与"失控性反弹"的叠加。

From the beginning of 2014 , China starts to ease its family planning policy , which allows couples to have a second baby if either parent is an only child .The number of the couples of childbearing age that either one is an only child , the proportion that the couples who are permitted to a second birth will really give birth , and the birth timing will be the three fundamental determinants of the post-policy-change baby boom .It is estimated that the couples of childbearing age that either one is an only child are 20 million in the early 2014 in the whole country , the 60% of them will actually give the second birth in a couple of year after the policy change , that will result in a sharp rise of birth.The influence of birth control policy on fertility is deferent in urban and rural area for different women .In order to avoid too large baby boom , some measures should be take to keep off both “policy-loosening caused fertility rise” and “loss of control fertility rise”.