近几十年中国小雨减少趋势及其机制的研究进展

Main progress in research on reduced light rain in China during recent decades

小雨的变化是研究降水变化重要且不可忽略的方面,小雨频次和小雨量的减少已成为我国气候变化及干旱化的重要特征。观测资料的分析表明:近几十年来小雨量和小雨频次除了西北地区外均呈现减少趋势,并且这种减少主要集中在中国东部,其中小雨频次的减少比小雨量的减少更为显著。通过对小雨的减少及其机制的研究进行综述,指出目前研究的局限性,并指出未来应着力从增暖、水汽以及气溶胶三个方面,综合运用诊断分析和数值模拟方法,探讨这几种可能影响因素对小雨减少的相对贡献。

As the reduction in light rain amount and events is the key feature of climate change and drought in China, it is important to understand the change of light rain for the studies of precipitation variations. Analysis of observational data indicated that the amount and frequency of light rain have decreased through out China except for the northwest region. The reduction has occurred notably in eastern China where light rain frequency showed more clear decrease than its amount. By reviewing the main progress in the research on light rain reduction and its possible causes, the limitations of the previous studies are discussed and the following roadmap for future studies is outlined. That is,more attention should be paid to understand the relative contributions from processes related to warming, water vapor and aerosols to light rain reduction using both diagnostic analyses and numerical simulations.