摘要
随着我国货币供给内生性的增强以及金融改革的深化,央行货币政策的利率传导机制近年来正在形成。通过引入智能科学领域对残差非正态分布向量自回归模型(VAR-LiNGAM)研究的最新成果,本文采用完全数据驱动的经济变量同期因果关系模型识别方法,利用该模型对我国2002年1月到2013年11月的月度宏观数据进行运算,并采取脉冲响应分析的方法对所识别的模型进行实证分析。结果显示我国央行的货币政策对实体经济的调控采用的是"二元调控模式",既通过对货币数量工具的调控实现对一般价格体系和产业结构的调整,又通过货币的价格工具对货币市场实施调控。这是基于我国金融体系、金融市场成熟程度的现实选择,未来金融政策将以提高货币政策传导机制的效率为重点,货币政策的数量工具必然向价格工具转变。
With the endogenous enhancement of China＇s money supply and the deepening of financial reform, the interest rate transmission mechanism of monetary policy is taking shape in recent years. By introducing the latest research achievements on the residual non - normal distribution vector autoregressive model （ VAR - LiNGAM） in the intelligent science, this paper adopts causal model recognition method with fully data - driven economic variables at the same time, applies this approach to model Chinese macroeconomic data from January 2002 to November 2013 and carries out an empirical analysis of the identified model by use of the impulse response analysis method. Results show that the People＇s Bank of China monetary policy regulates the real economy through ＂dual control mode＂ ： both realizing the adjustment of general price system and industrial structure by controlling the monetary number instrument, and implementing regulation on money market by monetary price instrument. This is a realistic choice based on financial system and financial market maturity. The future financial reform will take improving transmission mechanism of monetary policy as the key point, and the number tool of monetary policy must change to price tool.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第10期1-8,共8页
Commercial Research
