经济政策不确定性、现金持有水平及其市场价值

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Cash Holdings and Market Value

不确定性作为经济政策运行必然产生的结果，会对微观企业行为产生重要影响。本文以2003—2011年中国A股非金融类上市公司季度数据为样本，研究经济政策不确定性影响公司现金持有水平的具体作用机制及其经济后果。结果表明：（1）经济政策不确定性越高，公司现金持有水平越高，且代理问题越严重，两者关系越敏感；（2）市场化进程越低地区的公司，其现金持有水平受经济政策不确定性影响更敏感；（3）总体上因经济政策不确定性增加现金持有水平会降低现金的边际价值。进一步检验发现，当经济政策不确定性较低时，表现为现金持有的“权衡观”，而当经济政策不确定性较高时，表现为现金持有的“代理观”。以上结果表明：保持经济政策的稳定、推进市场化进程对降低公司超额现金持有，提高现金资源配置效率具有重要作用。

As the basic law of c policy, economic policy uncertainty has an important impact on micro -enterprises＇ behaviors. This paper uses the 2003 -2011 China A share listed companies＇ quarterly data as the research sample to study the impact of macro - economic policy uncertainty on enterprises＇ specific mechanisms of Cash holdings and their economic consequences. The results show that： （ 1 ） the higher the uncertainty of the economic policy is, the higher the company＇s Cash holdings will be; （2） the more serious the agency problem is and regions with lower degree of market development. , the more sensitive the relationship between the company＇s Cash holdings and the economic policy uncertainty＇s relation will be; （3） the act of increasing Cash holdings due to the economic policy uncertainty will decrease the market value of the Cash. The results show that： maintaining the stability of the macro - economic policy and promoting the marketization have a positive impact on improving the efficiency of Cash resources allocation.