我国农村家庭消费倾向的实证研究——基于人口年龄结构的视角

The Empirical Study on the Consumption Propensity of Rural Households:From the Perspective of Population Age Structure

本文采用2010和2012年中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)在25个省6299个农村家庭的最新两期截面微观数据,将生命周期模型与预防性储蓄理论结合起来,考察人口年龄结构对农村家庭消费的影响。实证结果显示,人口年龄结构变动对农村家庭的消费倾向具有显著影响。其中,少儿抚养比对农村家庭消费倾向具有显著的负效应;老年抚养比对农村家庭消费倾向具有显著的正效应。研究表明,我国现阶段农村居民消费低迷的原因并不是农村人口老龄化所引起的,相反,少儿抚养比的下降和老年抚养比的上升在一定程度上有助于农村家庭的消费倾向提高,而不同地区老龄化程度的差异是东部地区家庭消费高于中西部地区的重要原因。

Using the latest Micro data of 6299 rural households in 25 provinces by CFPS, this paper applies LCH model with the Precautionary Saving Theory to study the relationship between consumption and the population age structure.. The result suggests that the youth dependency ratio has negative effects on the rural households＇ consumption propensity, while the old dependency ratio has positive effects on consumption propensity. It shows that the aging of the rural population has not caused the consumption downturn. On the contrary, the rural household consumption will be improved when the child dependency ratio declines or the elderly dependency ratio rises. Different aging degree is the main reason for the higher household consumption in the east- em region than central and western regions.