市场化改革、人口年龄结构与居民消费需求

Marketization,Population Age Structure and Consumption Demand of Residents

利用中国1998-2010年省级面板数据,实证考察人口年龄结构变动对居民消费需求的影响。实证结果显示,少儿抚养系数和老年抚养系数均对居民消费需求有显著的负向影响。但随着市场化程度的不断深入,该负向影响会逐渐减少,最终变为正向影响。值得注意的是,在样本区间内,由于老年抚养系数是增加的,所以老年人口比例的上升是现阶段中国居民消费需求不足的重要原因之一,在样本区间内,老年抚养系数的上升可以解释居民消费率下降幅度的16.3%。

This paper empirically examines the effects of population age structure on the rate of consumption of residents using panel data from Chinese provinces during the period 1998 - 2010. The empirical results suggest that both youth dependency ratio and old dependency ratio have negative impacts on the rate of consumption of residents. But the negative impacts will gradually decrease and eventually become positive during the process of marketization. It should be noted that the old dependency ratio is a cause for the insufficiency of consumption because the old dependency ratio is increasing during the period 1998 -2010. The increase in the old dependency ratio can explain 16. 3% of the extent of reduc.tion in consumption rate.