安徽省育龄妇女生育水平及变动研究

On the Fertility Level of Women of Child-bearing Age and Its Variation in Anhui Province

以我国第五次、第六次人口普查数据为基础,结合历年统计数据,从横向和纵向两个角度剖析安徽省妇女生育水平现状和发展趋势,探析生育模式的变动情况。研究发现安徽省虽早已进入低生育水平阶段,但生育水平起伏较大,存在着反弹势能,且皖北、江淮和皖南三大区域之间生育水平发展不平衡。当前全省应当平稳推进现行生育政策,稳定低生育水平,提高计划生育管理和服务能力,不断优化人口结构。

Based on the data of the 5th, 6th population census and years of statistical data, this paper analyzes the present fertility level of women of child-bearing age in Anhui province, points out its development tendency, and discusses the variations of population growth patterns. The research result shows that the province of Anhui as a whole has already entered the stage of low birth-rate, but birth-rate still fluctuates and population rebound is still possible, and the birth rate in northern Anhui, southern Anhui and areas along Yangtze River and Huai River varies a lot. Therefore, it is advisable for Anhui government to carry on the present fam- ily-planning policy, stabilize the low birth-rate level, improve the level of birth-control management and service, and to optimize population structure.