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2014年美国中期选举及其对中美关系的影响 被引量：2

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摘要 2014年美中期选举是美国政治的新一轮重要洗牌。从选情发展看,本次中期选举将延续甚至恶化两党对峙、府会分立的极化状态,直接左右奥巴马政府的内政外交议程。就中美关系而言,美国中期选举将继续成为政治人物炒作中国议题的舞台;关键涉华议员的变动将给中美关系带来不确定性;而中期选举及其后续的政治乱象,也可能使奥巴马成为"外交总统",为其推进其亚太战略以及推进中美"新型大国关系"产生助力。
作者 刁大明
机构地区 中国社会科学院美国研究所
出处 《现代国际关系》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第10期31-37,共7页
基金 国家社会科学基金青年项目"美国国会涉华关键议员行为研究"(项目编号:13CGJ041)的阶段性成果
关键词 美国 中期选举 奥巴马第二任期 中美关系
分类号 D771.2 [政治法律—中外政治制度]
  • 相关文献

参考文献41

  • 1Larry Sabato and Howard Ernst, Encyclopedia of American Po- litical Parties and Elections, NY: Checkmark Books, 2007, pp. 226- 227.
  • 2Nelson W. Polsby and Aaron Wildavsky, Presidential Elec- tions : Contemporary Strategies of American Electoral Politics, 4th ed. , NY: Free Press, 1991, p. 10.
  • 3美国劳工部劳工统计局(BureauofLaborStatistics)数据,http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES00000000017output-view=net_lmth.(上网时间:2014年10月6日).
  • 4见美国劳工部劳工统计局数据,http://dma.bls.gov/timeseries/LNSl4000000.(上网时间:2014年10月6日).
  • 5Vicki Needham and Kevin Cirilli, "Too Little Too Late on Jobs for Dems?", The Hill, October 4, 2014, http://thehill, com/policy/fi- nance/219742-too-little-too-late-on-jobs-for-dems; John Cassidy, "When Will the Obama Recovery Start Helping Democrats?", The New Yorker, October 3, 2014, http://www, newyorker, com/news/john-cas- sidy/will-obama- recovery- start-helping-democrats.
  • 6"Problems and Priorities" , Polling Report, http://www. pollingreport, com/prioriti, htm.
  • 7Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections, NY : Longman, 2004, p. 157.
  • 8"Presidential Approval Ratings-Barack Obama", C, al- lup, http ://www. gallup, com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential -job-approval. aspx.
  • 9Jeffrey M. Jones, "Obama Averages 45.8% Job Approval in Year Five", Gallup Politics, January 21, 2014, http://www, gallup. corn/poll/166964/obama-averagcs -job - approval - year- five. aspx.
  • 10Erica Werner, " Republicans Shift Focus to Immigration as Leading Election Issue", Huffington Post, August 25, 2014, http:// www. huffingtonpost, corn/2014/08/25/immigration- midterm- elections_ n_5709857, html.

同被引文献94

  • 1张光,刁大明.《解构国会山:美国国会政治与议员涉华行为》,北京:时事出版社,2013年,第302-303页.
  • 2"United States Elections, 2014 " Wikipedia, available at : http ://en. wikipedia, org/wiki/United_States_elections _2014.
  • 3John Sides, " Final Forecast: Republicans Have A 98% Chance of Taking the Senate, " The Washington Post, Nov. 4, 2014, available at: http://www, washingtonpost, com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/ll/04/final-fore- cast -republicans-have-a-98-chance -of-taking-the-senate/.
  • 4http://results, enr. clarityelections, com/AZ/53314/149673/Web01/en/summa-a J ry. html.
  • 5" Barber-MsSallyRecount : Don't Expect A New Winner, " Azcentral, Dec. 5,2014, available at : http ://www. azcentral, corn/story/opinion/op - ecL/2014/12/05 / barber- mcsally - recount/19948891 /.
  • 6Roger H. Davidson, Walter J. Oleszek, Frances E. Lee and Eric Schickler, Congress and Its Members, 14th ed. (Washington, D. C. : Congressional Quarterly Press, 2014), pp. A2 - A3.
  • 7http ://www. census. gov/geo/www/us_regdiv, pdf.
  • 8Davidson, Oleszek, Lee and Schiekler, Congress and Its Members, pp. A2 ~ A3.
  • 9John Dickerson," How to Read the Waves," Slate, Oct. 29, 2014, available at: http ://www. slate, corn/articles/ news_and_politics/politics/2014/10/midterm_elections may_bring a_republican_wave a_guide to what that would, html.
  • 10Angus Campbell, "Surge and Decline : A Study of Electoral Change," in Angus Campbell, Phillip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes eds. , Elections and the Political Order (New York: Wiley, 1966), pp. 40 ~ 62.

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现代国际关系
2014年 第10期

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