“新常态”、工业化后期与工业增长新动力

‘The New Normal',the Late Stage of Industrialization and the New Power of Industrial Growth

从工业增长速度变化、工业需求侧变化、工业产业结构和区域结构变化以及工业企业微观主体表现分析,种种迹象表明中国工业经济正走向一个速度趋缓、结构趋优的"新常态"。这个过程也正是中国步入工业化后期的阶段,国际经验表明工业化后期阶段往往是曲折和极富挑战性的。对于中国而言,在众多挑战中,当前必须高度重视产能过剩、产业结构转型升级和"第三次工业革命"三方面的问题。当前中国出现的工业"劣质产业论"是站不住脚的,而工业"地位下降论"还为时尚早。在中国步入工业化后期,尤其是"十三五"期间,推进工业发展对中国实现工业化和经济步入"新常态"具有十分重要的战略意义。面对工业发展的新挑战,我们要做的是增加工业经济增长的新动力。新时期工业增长的新动力来自于工业化的供给推动力和城市化的需求拉动力的结合,而全面深化改革则是"源动力"。

From the analysis of the changes of the growth rate of industry, industrial demand side, industrial structure and regional industry structure, and industrial enterprise performance, all the signs show that Chinese industrial economy is heading for a slow growth, structure optimization, which is ＇the new normal＇, the process of China step into the late stage of industrialization stage. International experience shows that the late stages of industrialization is often tortuous and challenging. For China, in the numerous challenges, she must pay attention to the excess capacity, the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure and the third industrial revolution. In current China, inferior industry theory is untenable, and the industrial status decline theory is still too early to realise. Facing the new challenges of industrial development, what we have to do is to increase the new power of the industrial economic growth. China industrialization process will provide further impetus to the industrial growth in supply, while China urbanization process will provide the impetus for industrial growth in demand, and comprehensively deepen reform is the source of power.