我国潜在经济增长的金融因素分析及趋势展望

Financial Factors' Analysis of China's Potential Economic Growth and Trend Outlook

2008年全球金融危机期间,活跃的金融因素影响着经济增长问题的每一个方面。利用统计趋势分解法估算我国潜在经济增长的当前状况,针对金融因素对我国潜在经济增长的作用机制,在我国潜在经济增长率为7%左右的情况下,应进一步深化金融机构的市场化改革,调整经济需求结构,降低地方政府对房地产市场的依赖性,以减少金融风险。

During the global financial crisis in 2008, active financial factors affect every aspect of economic growth problems more dramatically. In this paper, the statistical trend decomposition method is utilized to estimate current situation of China＇s potential economy, aimed at the function system of financial factors on China＇s potential economics development, at the situation of the potential economy increase rate is 7%, so we should deepen the marketization reform of financial organization, adjust the economy demand structure, decrease the dependency of local real estate corporation, and to reduce the financial risk.