基于行业异质性的中国工业发展与碳排放的关系研究

Analysis on the Factors of China's Industrial Carbon Emission: Based on Industry Heterogeneity

利用对数平均迪氏指数法将工业碳排放总量分解为工业产出规模效应、行业结构效应、行业能源消费结构效应和能源强度效应，从总效应角度研究了上述四个效应对碳排放总量的作用，其中前三个效应对碳排放均有拉动作用，工业产出规模效应的作用最大。能源强度效应对全行业的碳排放量有较强的抑制作用。其次，根据1995~2011年工业32个行业四个效应值及其碳排放的面板数据模型，从总体样本和分行业样本两个层面分别研究四大效应对中国工业碳排放的影响。总样本研究表明，全行业工业产出规模效应和行业结构效应对碳排放有显著的正向和负向影响。分行业样本研究根据能源强度、R＆D投入、外资比重及资本密集度分类标准对工业行业进行分类，研究基于行业差异的各因素对中国工业碳排放的影响。结果表明，工业产出规模效应和行业结构效应对碳排放的正向影响和负向影响不存在行业差异，行业能源消费结构效应和能源强度效应对不同行业碳排放的影响有一定的差异。最后，根据实证结果提出合理的减排建议。

In the new century, China＇s industrial economy is developing rapidly. Further research on carbon emissions has an important theoretical and practical significance to achieve sustainable development of industrial economy. By using LMDI method, the industrial carbon emissions were decomposed into four indexes, i.e., industrial scale, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and energy intensity. The effects of the above four indexes on industrial carbon emissions were explored. The results show that the first three indexes have a stimulating effect on it, especially the effect of industrial scale, and the effect of energy strength can suppress carbon emissions. Secondly, according to 32 industries＇ panel data model from 1995 to 2.011, the four indexes＇ influences on carbon emissions were researched from both overall and sector levels. The research results show that the effect of industrial scale and industrial structure have positive and negative effect on the overall industry respectively. In addition, this paper studies industrial carbon emission based on industry heterogeneity after classifying 32 industries into 8 groups according to four classification standards including energy intensity, R＆D investment, the proportion of foreign capital and capital intensity. Finally, it was found that industrial scale and industrial structure of different industries have the same influence on carbon emission, yet, the effects of energy consumption structure and energy intensity show some differences. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions to reduce carbon emissions were put forward.