中国农产品期货市场国际影响力的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the International Status of China's Agricultural Futures Market

以大豆、玉米和棉花期货作为研究对象,实证分析了我国农产品期货市场的国际影响力。结果显示,2008年以来我国农产品期货市场的国际影响力短期内显著增强,但是美国期货市场在农产品定价权上依然有主导优势,对信息的反应也更为有效。国内相关农产品生产供给不足所导致的供需矛盾突出、进口被动大幅增加是我国农产品期货市场影响力提升的一个重要因素。

This paper investigates the international status of China＇s agricultural futures market since 2008 by examining the price interrelation of three commodity futures traded both in U.S. market and China market （soybeans, corn and cotton）. It is found that the international status of China＇s agricultural futures market has been significantly enhanced, but the U.S. futures market still plays a dominant role in the global futures market. The substantial import increase of agricultural products caused by Insuffi-cient domestic supply is an important reason for the upgrading influence of China＇s agricultural futures market.