资源制约与长期经济增长——基于中国的实证分析

Resource Constraints and Long-run Economic Growth——Based on China's Empirical Analysis

自然资源对我国经济增长的制约作用正日益凸显,而比较优势的动态转换是实现经济可持续增长和规避资源制约的有效途径。本文在罗默(2003)和索伦森与惠特—雅各布森(2012)分析框架的基础上,将生产过程中最为重要的3种自然资源水、土地和能源纳入模型考虑,考察自然资源约束对我国长期经济增长的影响。实证结果发现,现阶段自然资源对我国经济增长的制约作用很显著:由于能源、水和土地不能与劳动力以相同的速度增长(即在经济增长过程中存在资源约束),使得中国经济增长率每年比没有资源约束的情况要降低5.25%。因此,在丧失资源比较优势的情况下,维持我国经济可持续增长的可行途径就是实现比较优势的动态转换。

The role of natural resource constraints on China＇s economic growth is increasingly prominent, while the dynamic transformation of comparative advantage is an effective way to achieve sustainable economic growth and to avoid the resource constraints. This paper studies natural impact on China＇s long- term economic growth in resource constraints based on Romer （2003） and Sorensen and WhittaJacobsen （2012） analytical framework. Empirical results show that the restriction of resources at the present stage of China＇s economic growth is significant. Since energy, water land can not grow at the same rate as labour, China＇s economic growth annual resource constraints than no circumstances be reduced to 5.25%. Thus, in the case of loss of comparative advantage of resources, the viable way for sustainable economic growth in China is to achieve dynamic conversion of comparative advantage.