土地财政对房地产开发投资与商品房销售价格的影响分析——来自中国地级市面板数据的经验证据

An Analysis of the Impact of Land Finance on Real Estate Development Investment and Commercial Housing Prices——Empirical Evidence From China's Prefecture Level Panel Data

随着近年来中国房地产业的持续过热和房价的节节攀升,社会舆论和学术界的研究有一个倾向:即认为土地财政是导致上述问题的首要因素,改变现有的土地财政制度是房地产市场调控的关键。本文测算了地方财力对土地出让金的实际依赖程度,通过建立地级市动态面板数据模型和运用广义矩方法,分别研究了土地财政对房地产开发投资相对规模和商品房销售价格的影响。结果表明:地方财力的土地出让金依赖程度对房地产开发投资具有显著的正向影响,但对房价的影响并不显著;房价的主要影响因素来自于适应性预期和经济社会基本面。从而,本文指出稳定房价应保持房地产政策稳定,平衡房地产市场供求;而防止房地产过热则可通过完善地方税体系等措施降低地方政府对土地财政的依赖;政府同时要做好房价上涨过程中的利益再分配。

As China＇s real estate industry continues to overheat and housing prices continue to rise in recent years, both the public opinions and scholars in China tend to believe that land finance is the leading factor of the above problems, and that to change the existing land finance system is the premise of China＇s housing price regulations. In this paper, we first measure local dependence upon land- transferring fees, then we build a dynamic panel data model of prefecture-level city, and study the impact of land finance on relative scale of real estate development investment and commercial housing prices respectively by applying generalized method of moments. The results show that, local dependence upon land-transferring fees has a significant positive impact on real estate development investment; however, it does not affect housing prices significantly. The main factors that influence housing prices come from adaptive expectations and social economic fundamentals. Thus, we point out that to ensure housing price stability, government should keep the policies relatively stable and balance both supply and demand of real estate market. In order to control the overheated real estate industry, we should reduce local governments＇ financial dependence on land by improving the local tax system and by applying some other approaches. Meanwhile, China＇s government should handle the benefit redistribution problem when housing prices are rising.