中国通胀与产出的动态研究--基于时变性的菲利普斯曲线

The Dynamic Study on Inflation and Output in China——Based on the Time-variant Phillips Curve

国内关于中国通胀-产出的研究较多,但大都缺乏微观机理的分析,且很少有文献对时变性菲利普斯曲线进行系统性研究。本文试图弥补上述研究中的不足,我们以传统菲利普斯曲线的估计为研究起点,结合新凯恩斯主义厂商定价的微观理论,实证考察中国通胀-产出关系的动态变化。结果表明,通胀-产出的关系并不一定是线性的。在平均通胀高企的时期,厂商往往会增加调价(涨价)频率,菲利普斯曲线斜率因此变得更加陡峭;相反,菲利普斯曲线则更加平缓。尽管有微观基础表明,通胀-产出关系也可能随着通胀波动性而发生变化,但我们的实证结果对此并不支持。上述结论一方面很好地解释了此次国际金融危机爆发后,中国通胀对产出更加敏感的事实;另一方面也预示着在物价低迷阶段,持续通缩可能会对产出造成较大负面冲击。因此,货币政策应注重通胀-产出的非线性动态变化,加强调整的前瞻性和有效性。

Based on the microeconomic foundation of firms＇ pricing activities, this paper analyzes the dynamics of inflation and output in China. We establish a time-variant Phillips Curve and find the tradeoff between inflation-output is nonlinear. The above conclusions explain well the facts in China that the inflation was more sensitive to the output after this round of international financial crisis, and they also predict the huge adverse impacts of the deflation. We suggest that the monetary policy should pay more attention to the time-variant Phillips Curve in the future.