城乡收入差距对经济稳定的影响研究——基于1978—2011年宏观数据的经验分析

A Study of the Influence of Urban-Rural Income Gap on Economic Stability——An Empirical Analysis Based on 1978-2011 Macro Data

选取中国1978—2011年的时间序列数据,构造了描述经济稳定增长状态的经济稳定偏离指数,并运用Johansen协整理论和VECM模型,就我国改革开放以来城乡收入差距和经济稳定之间的内在联系机理进行了实证研究。研究发现:城乡收入差距对经济稳定增长的影响明显。长期来看,城乡收入差距对经济稳定增长起到了一定的积极作用,即收入分配差距逐步扩大时,经济增长将趋于更加稳定,并且还表现出一定的滞后性;从短期来看,城乡收入差距扩大将加剧经济增长的波动而出现不稳定状况。这意味着城乡收入差距对经济稳定的冲击作用在总体上可能呈现倒"U"型关系。上述发现具有较强的政策含义。

This paper builds a deviation index of economic stability, describing steady economic growth, based on the analy- sis of time series data from 1978 to 2011. We emphatically analyzes intrinsic connection between urban-rural income gap and eco- nomic stability since the reform and open up policy by using Johansen co-integration test and VECM？ model, The study shows that urban-rural income gap obviously impacts the steady economic growth. In the long run, income distribution disparity based on measuring ratio of the income of urban and rural residents has certain positive effect on steady economic growth, namely, eco- nomic growth will be steadier and such reaction lags while the income distribution gap gradually widening. In the short term, the widening of the income disparity will aggravate the economic fluctuations. Thus the economy tends to be subject to economic ups and downs. It means that the impact of income gap on economic stability may present an inverted-U relationship generally. The findings above have strong policy implications.