收入不平等与经济发展——基于中国省际面板数据的分析

Income Inequality and Economic Growth:An Analysis Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

基于1987—2005年的中国省级面板数据对收入不平等与经济发展之间的关系进行了分析。有证据表明中国确实存在着不平等程度随经济发展先提高后降低的现象(也即不平等与经济发展水平存在Kuznets倒U型关系),转折点大约在人均GDP达到15 870元(1987年价格水平)时出现。文章随后分析了收入不平等对经济发展的影响,结果发现本期的经济增长速度随着上期收入不平等水平的提高呈现先升后降的趋势。在收入不平等的变化对经济增长的影响方面没有发现一致的结论。

China has achieved rapid economic growth and millions of people have been out of poverty since 1978. But since then, another phenomenon that has been eye-catching is the rising income inequality. Based on provincial panel data between 1987 and 2005, this paper finds an inverted U curve relationship between the income inequality and the level of economic devel- opment, and the turning point shows up when the GDP per capita reaches circa ~ 15870 （1987 price level）. This paper also finds an inverted U curve relationship between inequality level of last period and economic growth rate of current period. We haven＇t come to any consistent conclusion about the effect of changes in inequality on economic growth.