从费率看城镇职工基本养老保险制度改革

Examining the Reform of the Urban Basic Old-Age Insurance System in the Perspective of the Contribution Rate

在考虑人口、工资、费率等因素的基础上,文章对城镇职工基本养老保险制度的社会统筹基金和个人账户基金进行收支预测,模拟了基本养老保险基金在3种不同场景下的走势。结果发现:缴费费率确实会对基本养老保险收支状况产生重要影响;在提高制度覆盖率和费用征缴率的前提下,存在适度降低企业缴费费率并提高个人缴费费率的空间,但大幅度降低费率并不可取;基本养老保险制度若要保持长期财务可持续性,仅依靠制度自身的参数调整可能还不够,还需要有强有力的制度外资金支持。

With consideration of population,wage,the contribution rate and other factors,the paper predicts the income and expenditure of the social pooling fund and personal account fund in the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers and simulates the trends of basic pension funds in three different scenarios.It finds that the contribution rate actually has an important impact on the balance of basic pension funds;with the premise that both coverage rate and collection rate increase,it is possible to reduce the enterprise contribution rate and raise the personal contribution rate:but significant reduction of the contribution rate is not desirable.To keep long-term financial sustainability of basic old-age insurance system,it is not enough to merely adjust the parameters of it;rather,powerful financial support from outside is needed.